by Jerry Keys

Isn't it just a coincidence, or pure fate, the lock-out was settled 'just in time' for training camp? The only positive thing which came from it was, at least this spectacle will not occur for the next ten years. Season-ticket holders were still expected to pay up even though the settlement probability was still 'in the air.' Maybe the owners needed the interest off of the millions of dollars collected before issuing refunds had the 2011 season been cancelled.

Free agency was at best a blur, as was training camp. Several players are still holding out or are injured and may not suit up for Week 1. Peyton Manning may not suit up for the opening week and may miss more than one game. Chris Johnson has yet to report to training camp and his agent and the Titans are still roughly $4 million per year apart in contract talks. And almost every pre-season, a key player for a play-off contending team seems to be injured, either for the entire season or for a significant portion of the season.

The San Diego Chargers were a mystery last year, explosive offense and tenacious defense; but no play-offs. The Chargers should right the ship in '11. The Oakland Raiders looked impressive inside their division in 2010 (6-0) but horrid outside the AFC West, 2-8. Al Davis fired a very capable coach and as usual, will continue to have the team in disarray. Denver is still in search of a quality QB and has been in a constant state of flux since starting the 2009 season at 6-0 and losing their last 8 of 10 games to finish at 8-8, followed by a 4-12 '10 campaign. Kansas City shocked everyone last year, winning a number of games they could have very easily lost. The AFC West had the luxury of playing the NFC West last year. This year they face a much-tougher NFC North, not to mention the AFC East. The Chiefs should contend for a wild-card, but fall short.

The New England Patriots should (yawn) capture the AFC East. As long as Tom Brady is healthy, the Patriots are still the team to beat. The New York Jets stood toe-to-toe with the Patriots last year and prevailed in the divisional play-offs. The Jets have lost the last two AFC Championship games. They will not make it to a third. The Jets should start fast out of the gate but fade in November, still keeping them in play-off contention. A large reason will be their schedule against the always tough NFC East. The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills will again, battle for third place.

The Houston Texans were everyone's pick to finally erase Indianapolis' stronghold in the AFC South the last two years. This year will be that year. Whether Manning returns for Week 1 or not, the Texans will claim the South. The Jacksonville Jaguars faded late in '10 and it was a sign for the '11 season. The Jaguars have a strong running game but QB David Garrard is not capable of leading a team to the play-offs. The defense has slipped and coach Jack Del Rio's job will be on the line this season. The Tennessee Titans will be headed by QB Matt Hasselbeck, a player past his prime. If RB Johnson does not settle his contract dispute, the Titan offense will be in trouble. The Colts will contend, whether Manning starts Week 1 or sits out until Week 3 or 4. Manning is at his best when he has doubters, as was the case in 2008. The AFC South will play the NFC South and AFC North, each with at least two solid play-off contenders. The Texans should not fold late in the season, as in years past, but the Colts will be in the running for a wild card position.

The AFC North should be a usual two-team race, between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. The Cincinnati Bengals are set to face life without Carson Palmer and the Cleveland Browns are on the rise with young QB Colt McCoy. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are solid play-off contenders and possible Super Bowl caliber. I saw Cleveland as the surprise team last year and as usual, I was one year too early. The Browns will contend for the play-offs in 2011 but will have to get past the big two before it can be a reality. The AFC North faces the very weak NFC West and not-so-strong-anymore AFC South.

The NFC West was won last year with a 7-9 record; while the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers were shut out of the play-offs with a 10-6 mark. 2011 should be a bit different. The St. Louis Rams almost won the division with rookie QB Sam Bradford. The Rams will win the West in '11. The San Francisco 49'ers should be contenders this year, but only for the division. The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals have new QB's and will experience difficult times in '11 with a schedule including the AFC North and NFC East. The stout schedule may show the Rams as an average team, but beware the Rams come January. If the Seahawks can knock off the defending Super Bowl champion Saints in '10, just imagine what the Rams could do this winter.

They historically beat up on each other and build up wins against outside opponents. This year should not be any different. Dallas will rebound from their '10 debacle and claim the NFC East. The New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles will vie for one or both wild card slots. The Eagles are predicted by many to 'already have Super Bowl' aspirations. Be careful of wishing too early. The Washington Redskins are the NFC East doormats but can still defeat a number of teams. Rex Grossman is not the answer but is a temporary fix.

The teams to watch in 2011 are Cleveland and Detroit. Neither should receive a play-off nod, but will make noise. The two teams who are highly predicted for success, but will fall far short, are the New York Jets and Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles traded away their other QB (Kolb) and if Michael Vick gets injured, they are in trouble. Vick loves to flush the pocket but with a porous offensive line, that may be dangerous. The Jets have the swagger and talent but will not play up to their ability this season. Sorry Rex but you can sometimes bite off more than you can chew.

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