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Of Bradley County Tn.


DECEMBER  2010

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SPORTS

NFL PLAYOFF PREVIEW

by Jerry Keys

December is to the NFL; what July is to baseball. December is to the NFL; what February is to the NBA. Football takes center stage, as the playoff picture begins to formulate and meaningless college bowl games are played. At the beginning of the season, I picked a New York Super Bowl. I would like to take that selection back, but at least both appear playoff-bound. To the 'high-profile' NFL analyst who only spoke of a Dallas and Indianapolis Super Bowl (two teams I chose to not crack the playoffs-see September 2010 issue), I offer three words: he he he.

The Monday night game on November 29th between San Francisco and Arizona shows how abysmal the NFC West is. Each team is 3-7 and the victor will be one game out of first place. The winner of the West may very well compile a 7-9 mark. The NFC South has three teams vying for a playoff berth, Atlanta (9-2), New Orleans (8-3) and Tampa Bay (7-4). Atlanta not only has the better record, a win against each team in their first meeting, but has two of their five remaining games against Carolina (1-10).

Jerry Keys


The NFC North has two teams looking for a playoff spot, Chicago (8-3) and Green Bay (7-4). Although Minnesota (4-7) is out on contention, they are a very dangerous team. Their coach was dismissed, Brett Favre knows this is the end of the road for him and wants to walk away on a positive note. They still have games against the Giants and Philadelphia and can play spoiler for one of them. Favre's ride into the sunset has been a see-saw adventure. Following the '07 and '09 season, he led his teams to the NFC Championship Game and made critical errors which denied him a return to the Super Bowl. In '08 and '10 his teams have imploded from within. Who knows…if there is a '11 season maybe he could roll the dice just one more time. Would that really be a shock??


The NFC East offers two teams at 7-4, the NY Giants and Philadelphia. Each team has brutal schedules and one head to head left. The Eagles won their first match with the Giants in Philly so their rematch will be at New York. The Giants have a slight advantage with two games remaining against division rival, Washington. The Eagles have two games left with Dallas. After the Cowboys debacle, they are in a similar situation as Minnesota. Dallas ended Philadelphia's season last year by defeating them in Week 17 and a week later, in the wild card round. Both teams also face Minnesota.

The Giants and Eagles will end the season in a tie, with the Giants gaining the edge with an overall better conference record (division record is predicted to be the same as the Eagles'). Although the Packers are one game behind the Bears, they have a much easier remaining schedule and host their final game at home, against the Bears. The Falcons should hold off the Saints to capture the South. And it is a complete toss up on who will win the West. Maybe this will be the year a 7-9 team wins a division, hosts a wild card game; while a 10-6 or 9-7 team gets locked out of the playoffs. Realignment would not solve anything but what about having it mandatory for a team to post at least an 8-8 record to win the division AND advance to the playoffs? If a team wins a division at 7-9 or worse, forfeit their playoff berth.


The six playoff spots in the NFC 'should' be: 1-Atlanta (12-4), 2-Green Bay (11-5), 3-NY Giants (9-7), 4-Who Cares (7-9), 5-New Orleans (11-5), 6-Tampa Bay (10-6). Tampa will win out with Chicago, also 10-6, with a better conference record. Therefore, the Bears (10-6) and Eagles (9-7) will not participate in the playoffs. A team in the NFC West may get hot and finish the year 9-7, but I would not count on it. A perfect scenario would be for all four teams to finish the year at 6-10, but that would be unlikely as well.

The AFC West sports two teams looking for post-season action, the surprising Chiefs (7-4) and always slow starting, but solid finishing, Chargers (6-5). Oakland garnished attention for a few weeks but recently sank back under .500. Both teams have similar remaining schedules and the final head-to-head match-up at San Diego will probably decide the division. If the Chiefs win, they win the head-to-head match-up (Chiefs defeated Chargers in Week 1). The AFC East has the two top teams in the conference, the Jets and Patriots. Each team is 9-2 and plays four of their five remaining games against the same teams. Similar to the two teams in the West, the division may come down to this week's game between the two. The Jets won the first meeting but the rematch is at New England. Akin to the Chiefs, if the Jets win, they hold a one game lead and own the first tie breaker, sweeping the two head-to-head games.


The AFC North division may also be settled this week as the Steelers travel to Baltimore. Both teams are 8-3 and a loss to the Ravens will end any hopes of winning the North for Pittsburgh (Steelers lost their first meeting, but was during Big Ben's suspension). Their final five games are very similar (three are against division opponents) and even though Pittsburgh holds a slight edge in the games remaining, none of it will matter if they can not post a win this week in Baltimore. The winner of the North will wrap up at least a first round bye, claiming either the #1 or #2 seed.


The AFC South is a mirror image of the NFC West, up for grabs, but with much more class. Indianapolis and Jacksonville, each 6-5, hold a one game lead over Houston and Tennessee. Each team appears to have tough roads ahead if they expect to win the South. Tennessee has yet to face the Colts and have one game left (at home) against the Jaguars and Texans, and a road against the Chiefs. The Texans have only two games left against division opponents and already being one game back does not help. In addition, two of their other three games are against the Eagles and Ravens. Jacksonville hosts two games against teams with a 5-6 mark but must travel to all three division rivals to finish out the year. Indianapolis meets Tennessee twice and hosts the Jaguars. Their remaining two games are against 'peek-a-boo' teams, Dallas and Oakland, the outcome may very well depend upon which versions of those two teams show up.


The Jets seem to have luck on their side this year (see game against Houston) and will win the East by sweeping the series with New England. Pittsburgh will squeak out the North by defeating Baltimore this week and with their one-game lead, in addition to an easier schedule and a superior division record, procure a #2 seed. Historically, the Chargers become red hot in December and this year should not be any different. After winning the re-match with the Chiefs, the Chargers should maintain the division lead and not relinquish it. The South usually would fall to the Colts, but as I stated in September, Peyton can not do it all by himself every year. The Colts have no running game but that did not stop them from reaching the Super Bowl last year. This year, their "Achilles heel" will catch up with them. The winner will be the Jaguars, by either sweeping the series with the Colts or posting a better division record than Indianapolis.


The six playoff entries for the AFC 'should' be: 1-Jets (12-4), 2-Steelers (12-4), 3-Chargers (10-6), 4-Jaguars (9-7), 5-Patriots (12-4), 6-Ravens (10-6). Whichever teams who must face Cleveland or Buffalo in their last five games should be very cautious. These teams may be overlooked for the next week's match-up with a serious playoff contender. It occurs every year and '10 should be no different.

On a side note: The New York Yankees have turned the re-signing of Derek Jeter into a playground stare-down. Can anyone remind me when the Yankees last used "fiscal responsibility" to any length? Alex Rodriguez will get $31,000,000, Mark Teixeira $22,500,000, C.C. Sabathia $23,000,000 and A.J. Burnett $16,500,000. Jeter concluded his 10-year contract in '10 with $21,000,000. Jeter does not merit $21,000,000 as he once did and should not be given a contract over four years. Taking those numbers in mind, with regards to his age, a four-year deal worth $60,000,000 would seem logical.


But Derek is a special case. He "is" the face of the Yankees, yes, he will turn 37 next season but has batted .322 or better in three of the last five years. 3,000 hits is a given and 3,500 is very realistic. Given his ability, maybe he can retire as the #3 most hits in history. If the Yankees can give ARod $31, Jeter should receive at least $26. Jeter does not deserve $26 just as much as ARod does not $31, BUT you gave it anyway. Bragging about having deep pockets looks to have come back to bite the team in the butt. Random thought: for every year Jeter desires a contract past three years, drop his yearly salary by $4,000,000. If he wants security, give him a seven-year deal with a lower yearly salary and write in incentives for reaching a certain number of hits milestones. If he wants one more $20-plus million a year contract, give it to him; but keep it at two or three years.


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